Weekly newsletter

Seat Estimations: Fidesz-KDNP Clear Favorite but Two-thirds Majority Unlikely

Ábrahám Vass 2022.02.21.

After our usual roundup about the latest survey results, let’s see a compilation of the estimation of seats the party alliances would win at the April 3 elections. It is important to note that these calculations are perhaps even less reliable than the popularity polls; the trend however, is clear: most recent summaries all found the ruling forces to be the favorite of the elections, although the chances for a two-third majority are low. 

Besides basing their calculation on the end of January polls Taktikai szavazás (tactical voting) has also taken into account the results of the 2018 parliamentary, 2019 EP, and local elections, (with varying degrees of data weighting) and expects 40 opposition and 66 Fidesz victories in the single-member constituencies.

Consequently, Fidesz-KDNP would bag 114 seats on April 3, while the opposition alliance would pocket 84 mandates and one would go for the National Self-Government of Germans in Hungary (MNOÖ). This latest one may in fact be added to those of Fidesz-KDNP’s, as their deputy Imre Ritter is a former Fidesz member who always votes together with the ruling forces.

Fact

According to the Hungarian electoral law, voters officially residing in Hungary may cast two votes at the general elections: one for the national list, and one for the candidates in the given constituency. There are some 106 single-member constituencies across Hungary at the moment (meaning 106 mandates), while 93 are to be handed out according to the results of the votes cast to the national lists.

Vox Populi’s electoral guide calculation is based on left-wing Závecz’s latest poll (which reported a 3% lead for Fidesz-KDNP). This result, aggregated to some other surveys, suggests that Fidesz-KDNP might in fact lead by around 7%. As a result, those in the government may count on 124 mandates, while the opposition may calculate with 74 seats at this point (and one would go for MNOÖ).

According to the guide, in comparison to data measured last December, Fidesz-KDNP’s popularity is stagnating, but the opposition’s support dropped for the benefit of satirical, government-critical Two-tailed Dog Party (MKKP) and far-right Mi Hazánk.

It is rather the ruling forces who have gained more support over the last moths, 199mandatum.hu also appears to confirm. While these latest aforementioned estimations found Fidesz-KDNP to be clearly on top, this was not the case towards the end of last year, as around the opposition primaries the two major forces were polled to basically be neck-and-neck.

According to their October summary based on Závecz’s results at the time, Fidesz-KDNP would win some 100 mandates, while 98 would go for the opposition alliance, and one would go for MNOÖ, which once again, can be added right away to Fidesz-KDNP.

Political analyst Gábor Török forecasts comfortable Fidesz win

Perhaps the most relevant Hungarian political analyst, Gábor Török, also predicts the ruling forces to remain in power. In his analysis made last week, Török foresees Fidesz to win around 110 seats in the Parliamentary cycle, which is still a “moderate estimation,” explaining that some polls even suggest that they could achieve a result nearing two-thirds majority.

Török describes the ruling alliance as the top favorite of the elections with an astonishingly huge field advantage in all aspects.

Márki-Zay: Hungary Going Down Rather than Forward since 2010
Márki-Zay: Hungary Going Down Rather than Forward since 2010

"Untrammeled power leads to limitless corruption," Márki-Zay said, adding that the country had become among "the most corrupt and poorest nations in the EU", and one in which people's lives were the shortest.Continue reading

“It would be a huge surprise if the opposition could win,” he said, explaining that the biggest surprise would be if the opposition won at least 100 seats.”

featured image illustration via Zoltán Balogh/MTI


Recommended

Array
(
    [1536x1536] => Array
        (
            [width] => 1536
            [height] => 1536
            [crop] => 
        )

    [2048x2048] => Array
        (
            [width] => 2048
            [height] => 2048
            [crop] => 
        )

)