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Epidemiologist Forecasts 150-180 Daily Covid Deaths for End of November

Júlia Tar 2021.11.03.

The pandemic has embarked on a new, faster growth trajectory, Gábor Vattay, epidemiologist and head of the Department of Physics of Complex Systems at ELTE, concluded in his latest forecast, according to Népszava.

In the coming days, relatively low infection rates are expected due to the autumn school holidays, but after that, the number of infected people could increase dramatically, Gábor Vattay told the paper.

According to him, he was surprised by the change too, because he expected Hungary to have the same problems as other countries with similar contagion levels. In contrast, the current figures suggest a dramatically rapid and unimpeded increase, such as we saw in Lombardy in the first wave when people were unable to protect themselves.

Looking back over the past three weeks of data, we see that the increase in the number of cases has set a new, faster trajectory with a doubling rate of around 7.5 days. With a delay of one week, deaths have caught up and are now doubling at a rate of 7.5 days. The increase in the number of people in hospital has also been similar to last week,”

the epidemiologist said, adding that schools are massive drivers of epidemic spread. The impact of this will be reflected in the data released on Tuesday this week. Today, almost 2,000 new infections were registered.

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Around November 8-10, the data will start to become alarming again. By the middle of the month, Gábor Vattay says we will reach 4,000 hospitalizations and 90 deaths a day. Definite measures will certainly be taken, but they will no longer have a significant impact on the dampening effect. By November 22nd, the number of hospital inpatients will be around 8,000, and the daily mortality rate will be around 150-180.

Among the reasons Vattay gave is that vaccination started early in Hungary, and now the protective effect of Western vaccines has also fallen to a fraction. There is no reliable data on the “fading” of Sinopharm and Sputnik, but what we have seen suggests that the effect of one or both of them is fading faster than that of Western vaccines. “Thus, I suspect that in addition to the unvaccinated, there may be high mortality among those vaccinated early in the year.”

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As we have reported last week, virologist Ferenc Jakab said almost the same thing: he recommends the third vaccination for everyone, because, as time passes, antibody levels in the body decrease, and it is very important to maintain this.

Béla Merkely, the rector of Semmelweis University, told the public media over the weekend that all patients on ventilators are unvaccinated, according to MTI. Gábor Zacher, a doctor at the emergency department of Hatvan Hospital, said at the same forum which Jakab was also part of that he did not know the national figures, but talking to colleagues he saw that there were seven to eight unvaccinated patients for every one unvaccinated among those admitted to emergency departments, and a similar proportion of patients requiring ventilation.

Featured image via Péter Komka/MTI


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