US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev.
Security policy expert Attila Demkó says the war in Ukraine needs nuanced thinking about its causes and possible outcomes. He does not think that the West will ever intervene in this war with large numbers of manpower.
“It has been clear for years that Moscow will block Ukraine’s integration with the West,” noted Attila Demkó, Head of the Center for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus Collegium, in an interview with Slovak Hungarian portal Ma7. He stressed that although he is not a supporter of the Russian regime, it is ignorant to claim that the Russians have not drawn their own red lines. “If not sooner, we should have learned in 2008 in South Ossetia how far the Russians are willing to go if necessary. There was never a moment’s doubt that if Ukraine went the Georgian way, there would be violence. In 2014, the aggression was still partly hidden, now it is completely open,” he explained.
Demkó argued that “in a war, it is rarely the case that good and bad clash, except on the big screen.” “In the events of 2014, the Russians, the Americans, the Ukrainians, and some European countries bear a heavy responsibility, but in 2022, Russian aggression cannot be justified,” he explained.
On the division of Ukraine, he said:
few people in the West understand that if the Ukrainian army were to enter the two separatist regions today, part of the population would flee and the other would take up arms against the Ukrainians.”
He noted that “this is what the Russians did wrong in 2022, trying to invade areas where they had little support.” Moscow also miscalculated, according to the expert, in that “the Ukrainian army has been thoroughly reinforced since 2014, yet the Russians thought they could just march into Kiev.”
In response to a question, he said Putin attacked Ukraine “because he thought himself and Russia were strong and saw President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian state power as weak.”
“Seeing the weakness of Ukraine, the American failure in Afghanistan, the inertia of the German government, Putin thought he could cut the problem short with 200,000 troops,” he noted.
According to the expert,
Russia has neither the strength nor the will to attack NATO.”
“Obviously, NATO will sooner or later have to decide whether to actively put troops on the front line or to stop supporting Ukraine, because Ukrainian manpower is shrinking. I do not think that the West will ever intervene in this war with large numbers of manpower. There is no governmental will to do so in America or Europe,” the analyst said.
Nobody wants nuclear war. It is another matter that the states that are supplying weapons to Ukraine are in fact already part of the war,”
According to the analyst, “without Western support, Ukraine would have already lost the war, but the current Western support is not enough to win it.”