The Ukrainian war has definitely raised Fidesz-KDNP’s popularity, according to one of the most reliable pollsters. There is no consensus on the popularity measured before the Russian invasion, however. While one institute determined the two major forces to be neck-and-neck, another found that the governing forces are leading somewhat confidently. Less than one month to go, here are the latest poll results.
Republikon before the war: Election outcome will be open until 90th minute
There have been little drifts detected since January, according to the think-tank, led by former liberal SZDSZ politician, Gábor Horn. While the two big blocks’ support went down by 1% each in the total population since January, Fidesz stood at 40%, while the Opposition Alliance’s list stood at 39% at the time of the polling.
Satirical, government-critical Two Tailed Dog Party’s (MKKP) popularity dropped from 3% to 2%, while far-right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) increased from 2 to 3% of the total population. There are 2% more undecided voters (16% in total).
Fidesz-KDNP slightly leads among decided voters, too (48 to 46%). MKKP and Mi Hazánk both have 3-3% in this regard.
IDEA before the war: A comfortable Fidesz-KDNP advantage
Fidesz-KDNP leads by 4%, according to the latest snapshot (concluded on February 9) of the leftist-liberal think-tank, although as of that period, the gradual rise of Fidesz support detected until then has come to a halt, falling by 1%.
Support for the joint opposition list fell by 3% in comparison to January, while the ratio of undecided voters increased by exactly the same percentage points. Interestingly, the share of undecided voters (13%) is the highest since June 2021.
Far-right Mi Hazánk’s support increased by 2%, reaching the parliamentary threshold (5%) for the very first time in IDEA Institute’s polls. On the other hand, MKKP has no such cause for rejoicing as their popularity remained unchanged (2%), same as last month.
FactDon’t jump to any conclusions with Mi Hazánk, however. The Toroczkai-led party’s main campaign messages -criticism of coronavirus vaccination and restrictions- are losing ground in public life at the moment for obvious reasons. In addition, the government revoked virtually all restrictions this Thursday, further knocking the wind out of the radical party’s sails.
There was no drift detectable among decided voters, IDEA found. Fidesz-KDNP’s support has increased by 1%, while the opposition’s remained unchanged. In this regard, Mi Hazánk would not reach the parliamentary threshold, while MKKP’s support decreased (-1%).
Medián: War situation reinforcing governing parties
At the moment, the most exciting survey is the one that Medián hasrecently conducted. Although polling began before the Russian invasion, and it didn’t include any specific questions about the war, interviews made after Thursday last week clearly demonstrate that the war so far is ‘boosting’ Fidesz-KDNP.
According to the liberal-leaning think-tank, usually among the most reliable pollsters, Fidesz-KDNP only led by 4% before the Russian attack, which has now gone up to 12%.
Meanwhile, the Opposition Alliance has lost 2% since December, interpreted by a growing uncertainty (similarly detected by IDEA), as the share of the total population who cannot/will not vote has also gone from 13 to 20%.
In addition, respondents also deemed Fidesz’s odds to remain in power a lot more likely. At the moment, 67% expect Viktor Orbán and his allies to claim victory in April, up from 63%, polled in December. On top of that, less than half (45%) of the opposition’s voters trust their side to come out on top.
Featured photo via Viktor Orbán’s Facebook page