Despite the Drought, Estimations Suggest No Need to Import Maize

This year’s maize harvest should meet domestic demand despite the reducing effects of the drought, hence there is no need for imports, according to preliminary data from the Hungarian Chamber of Agriculture (NAK) at the end of July.

The crop estimate takes into account the effects of the severe drought so far in July and therefore includes a more subdued outlook for several crop species compared to previous forecasts, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The impact of the drought is also reflected in the upward trend in damage reports, that had significantly increased by the end of July, with the area of reported damage reaching 46,000 hectares.

For maize grown on the largest area, the previous national average yield expectation of 9 tons per hectare has been significantly reduced by the drought,

with national average yields of around 6.6 tons per hectare expected at the current stage, which would result in a maize harvest of 5.8 million tonnes.

Across the country, the crop is showing a varied picture, with heat stress having taken a significant toll on the crop and vegetation development much faster than usual. In poorer quality, saline, sandier areas, or where rainfall up to June was lower than the national average, many fields are in critical condition.

Sunflowers are expected to be less affected by the summer drought than maize, but forecasts for this crop are also more subdued than in the past.

With yields currently estimated at 2.7 tons per hectare, the 680,000 hectare area is expected to yield 1.88 million tons.

Among the smaller area crops, soybean was a positive surprise, with a doubling of the average for previous years, with 111,000 hectares now estimated to yield around 300,000 tonnes at 2.66 tons per hectare. Domestically, sugar beet is grown on 16,000 hectares, with a yield of 59 tons per hectare and a preliminary estimate of 963,000 tons to be harvested.

For all the crops concerned, a further prolongation of the drought will lead to a further reduction in yields. Despite this, this year’s expected maize harvest will continue to meet domestic needs, estimated at 4 million tons, and there are no foreseeable circumstances that would require imports to meet domestic demand, the ministry said. Accordingly, direct and indirect imports of crops from Ukraine remain prohibited, and importing companies are obliged to notify the domestic authorities of imports of crops from any other country.

At the same time, as regards crop estimates, it is important to stress that the current figures remain a preliminary forecast.

Until the autumn harvest, there are still a number of unforeseen factors that could affect the actual harvest. The final crop estimates will be available in the second half of August and the first third of September, taking into account weather events in the coming period.

Via MTI, Featured image: Pexels