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Analysts recently interviewed by Index believe that there will be a political struggle on March 15. Viktor Orbán can build on the protection of sovereignty and national identity in his speech, while his political opponent, Péter Magyar, should break the government’s communication superiority with a strong political message. A mobilization competition could also develop between the two sides.
There are two prominent national holidays in Hungary, on which politicians traditionally give speeches of great importance: March 15 and October 23. These occasions come into focus every year, as politicians use these historical events to send their most current messages.
Index interviewed a governing party insider, Dániel Deák, and an independent analyst, Tibor Attila Nagy, about the political significance of the national holiday on March 15.
Deák pointed out that Fidesz belongs to the Patriotic party family and its European Parliament faction, and that
standing up for sovereignty and national forces is a recurring element in Viktor Orbán’s festive speeches.
Deák believes that the chairman of the Tisza Party, Péter Magyar, is now “under political pressure” after “fewer people showed up than expected” at his event on October 23 last year. He says that Péter Magyar will organize his March 15 event on Andrássy Avenue, which is a “relatively narrow venue,” thus even a few thousand people could look like a packed crowd in photographs. In contrast, Orbán will give a speech in the much larger area in front of the National Museum.
Deák also said that Orbán is expected to explain the government’s main communication guidelines for the coming period. He said that the Prime Minister has already announced a number of measures in his year-end speech, such as amending the Fundamental Law, banning Pride, and proposing other legal tightening.
The Prime Minister also has a strong stance on the European Union, for instance, he did not support military aid to Ukraine at the last EU summit. These topics will probably also be echoed in Orbán’s speech on March 15.
He highlighted that
March 15 will clearly be a show of force and a mobilization competition between the two political parties, Fidesz and Tisza, to see which one can bring the largest number of people to the streets.
Although this year’s March 15 is not yet of decisive importance for the 2026 elections, the events of October 23 and March 15 next year will be crucial, as the parliamentary elections will be close by then.
Nagy believes that March 15 does not unite, but rather divides the politically active part of the Hungarian population. He noted that the parties celebrated separately even when the multi-party system was restored in 1989, and this situation has not changed since then.
He stated that there are two main stakes on this year’s March 15: Firstly, whether Fidesz or the Tisza Party can bring a larger crowd to the streets. It is expected that comparisons and photo shoots will be made about which event had more people, so a prestige battle may develop between the two parties. On the other hand, it is a question of whether Magyar will be able to deliver a speech that will attract public attention and that will break the communication dominance of Orbán and the government. He thinks that
Magyar should come up with something new and bold if he really wants to make an impact.
Nagy pointed out that Orbán’s speech was already pre-packaged with the election distribution measures announced by the government, especially the tax breaks and future tax exemptions for mothers. In addition, the topic of sovereignty and national independence could also play an important role in the Prime Minister’s speech, as the national holiday of March 15 is a good time to strengthen the political narrative of national identity and independence, building on the sublime memory of the War of Independence.
Via Index; Featured picture: MTI/Koszticsák Szilárd
