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Preliminary results project a win for the CDU/CSU union parties (Christian Democratic Union of Germany and Christian Social Union of Bavaria) in Germany’s early elections with 28.52% of the vote, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second with 20.8%, reports Bild. Analysts say that there are still many open questions and that the CDU/CSU will need to form a coalition with someone to form a government, with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) being the most likely partner.
According to the Bild exit poll, the percentages are as follows:
CDU/CSU: 28.52 percent
AfD: 20.8 percent
SPD: 16.41 percent
Greens: 11.61 percent
Die Linke: 8.77 percent
FDP: 4.33 percent
BSW: 4.97 percent.
Germany’s centre-right bloc has won Sunday’s federal election, with the far-right Alternative for Germany party doubling its vote share from 2021 to clinch second place. Here’s more on the results: https://t.co/A3Ed46U4d3 pic.twitter.com/jsbOddA1Hl
— Financial Times (@FT) February 24, 2025
Compared to preliminary polls, the SPD’s 16 percent is roughly in line with expectations, as is the Greens’ 13.5 percent, Hirado.hu reports. In addition, the CDU/CSU and AfD performed slightly below expectations. For the conservative union parties, there were recent polls that put them at 32 percent (although most pollsters have been measuring them at around 30 percent in recent weeks), and for the AfD, there were polls that put them at 23 percent – although they have been averaging more around 21 percent recently.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reacted to the election result in a post on X. He congratulated Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, on doubling the party’s share of the votes.
The people of Germany voted for change in immense numbers. I want to congratulate @Alice_Weidel on doubling @AfD’s share of the votes. Good luck and God bless Germany!
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) February 24, 2025
Bence Bauer, Director of the Hungarian-German Institute of the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, and analyst David Luther commented on the election result in a statement sent to Hungary Today. They pointed out that the federal election marks a tectonic shift in the German political landscape with implications for bilateral relations between Germany and Hungary.
The election victory of the CDU/CSU and the historic success of the AfD as the second strongest party indicate a fundamental realignment of German politics, which particularly in the areas of economic, migration, and social policy, represents a clear break with the previous left-liberal government line.
According to the analysts, the central element of this transformation is the failure of the Greens as a governing party. Their departure marks the end of a policy that was strongly influenced by ideologically driven progressive agendas. The departure from a “woke” and identity-politically motivated line represents a return to a pragmatic political course that is more strongly oriented towards national interests and economic reason.
The economic rapprochement between Germany and Hungary will be greatly facilitated by this election result.
The CDU/CSU pursues a growth-oriented, business-friendly agenda that focuses on tax relief, deregulation, and strengthening the middle class – an economic approach that is very similar to the Hungarian model of recent years.
Similar to the Hungarian Fidesz government, which promotes economic growth with targeted investment incentives and a business-friendly tax policy, the German government is now also focusing on measures to reduce the burden of taxes and contributions. The CDU/CSU economic program reads like a carbon copy of Hungarian government policy, according to the analysis.
There is also a remarkable convergence in migration policy. While the previous German coalition government pursued an expansive migration policy, the new political leadership is indicating a more restrictive line.
Even before the election, the CDU/CSU signaled its intention to relocate asylum procedures to the EU’s external borders and plans to suspend family reunification for those granted subsidiary protection, while the AfD advocates a drastic reduction in migration.
This new paradigm in migration policy is in line with the Hungarian position, which was one of the first countries to take consistent border security measures as early as 2015, and has since pursued a strict migration control policy.
As both Bauer and Luther recalled, a central element of Hungary’s socio-political agenda is the traditional family as the nucleus of society. The rejection of the “woke” gender ideology and the adoption of the child protection law reflect the desire to preserve traditional values and protect children from ideological influence. The political change in Germany and the conservative orientation of the new government give this position legitimacy, and could influence the discourse within the EU on socio-political issues in the long term.
One significant area in which there is no agreement between the CDU/CSU and other conservative forces in Europe, however, is policy on Ukraine.
While peace in Ukraine is already on the horizon before the election results, Germany has played a more active role in providing military and economic support to Kyiv than Hungary, for example.
This distinguishes the approach of the new German government from the Hungarian one, which has pursued a pragmatic and diplomacy-oriented approach since the beginning of the conflict. It remains to be seen whether the CDU/CSU will take a more differentiated position on the Ukraine issue in the long term or stick to its previous line of support, but this can be left open since the war will probably end before Merz takes office. This will also clear up this difficult question, which is a strain on German-Hungarian relations, the analysts pointed out.
In the long term, Germany’s political development plays into the hands of Hungary, which in recent years has opposed ideologically motivated, left-wing liberal politics.
The new German government will increasingly align itself with the positions of the conservative Hungarian government on key issues, from energy policy to migration control and economic development. This realignment not only signals a normalization of bilateral relations between Germany and Hungary, but could also fundamentally alter the balance of power within the European Union, reads the MCC study.
Meanwhile, another analysis by the Hungarian-German Institute pointed out that the formation of the German government is not expected to be free of compromises. Although the results show that almost half of German society voted for conservative and right-wing parties, the combined voter base of the left-green camp is also significant, at almost 40 percent. This latter information is important, because the CDU continues to rule out any possibility of cooperation with the AfD, so the two strongest parties are unlikely to form a coalition.
As the clear winners of the elections, the task of forming a government will fall to the CDU/CSU.
Election forecasts have long suggested that a renewed grand coalition between the CDU and the SPD was the most likely scenario and the only possible two-party solution. The current election results confirm this prediction.
Sticking the AfD behind a “firewall” is becoming a growing problem for German politics, exacerbated by the isolation of some parties from further coalition partners, the analysis reads. The parties have already excluded a number of potential coalition partners before the elections, leaving the hands of the political center increasingly tied.
In addition, a total of 34 percent of the MPs elected by voters are excluded from substantive policy-making, and voters are slowly coming to terms with the lack of political alternatives.
In a situation where the parties of the political center are condemned to cooperate by the will of the electorate and the other two parties represented in parliament disappear behind “firewalls” or conflict of interest resolutions, the question of political alternatives arises, the analysis emphasized.
Via Bild, Hirado.hu; Featured photo via Pexels
