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Recent surveys: Governing Fidesz-KDNP still leads confidently

By Abraham Vass // 2018.01.31.

Ahead of the April 8 elections three surveys have been recently published and all of them agrees that Fidesz leads without major contender. They all agree as well that Jobbik has the second place they however show different tendencies.

Research of governement-friendly Nézőpont Institute shows that among decided voters Fidesz’ support is higher (54%) than opposition parties combined. While Jobbik leads among opposition parties (13%) compared to their year-end results they seem to weaken further. Triade of left leaning opposition parties above electoral threshold (5%), MSZP-DK-LMP are measured 9-8-8% respectively, while among parties under the threshold, Momentum is at 3%. As to the results among the entire population (potential voters), pretty much the same tendencies can be observed: Fidesz- 40%, Jobbik- 7%, MSZP- 5%, DK- 4%, LMP- 3%, Momentum- 2%.

Nézőpont Institute has carried out an other survey regarding the approval of party chiefs. Viktor Orbán, PM and leader of Fidesz has the highest net approval rating with 45%, while candidate of Socialists and Párbeszéd, Gergely Karácsony is at 43%. Bernadett Szél (LMP) had 40% and Gábor Vona (Jobbik) 30%.

Survey of Závecz Research shows that opposition parties jointly would reach the same result as governing Fidesz-KDNP (50-50%) among decided voters. Almost nothing has changed in the last two months among the entire population. Fidesz remained at 33%, MSZP at 8%, DK at 5%, while Jobbik gained 1% (10%) and LMP lost 1% (4%). Momentum is at 2% in both category.

Support of parties among decided voters in the last 3 months. Graph: Závecz Research.

Political inactivity is pretty high, only about 40% of the potential voters is a decided voter. Thus, they predict a 45% voter turnout. Parties may have considerable amount of internal reserve as survey showed that only about 60% of decided voters would actually go to vote at the moment. Results would be influenced by the so-called active uncertains as well who would definitely go to vote but not yet decided to whom. Závecz Research estimates them 7% of the entire population, which is more than half million people.

According to Jobbik friendly Iránytű Intézet, Fidesz is leading (48%) among decided voters, Jobbik is measured to 22%, while MSZP-DK-LMP are on 8-7-7%. Similar tendencies can be seen among the entire population: Fidesz is at 33%, Jobbik has 17%, MSZP 6%, DK and LMP 5-5%.

As elections approach, Hungary Today will publish on each Monday a summary of what happened in domestic politics the week before. Last week’s roundup you can find here.

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