The OECD projects Hungary’s economy will contract by 8-10% this year, depending on whether a second outbreak of the novel coronavirus occurs towards the end of the year.
The OECD puts the contraction at 8.0% in a “single-hit scenario” and at 10% in a “double-hit scenario” in a biannual forecast released on Wednesday.
The OECD augurs a single-hit scenario recovery to 4.6% GDP growth in 2021, but a slower pickup, to just 1.5%, in the double-hit scenario.
Finance Ministry State Secretary Gábor Gion said that the forecast ignored several aspects and was more negative than projections by the government and market players. He added, however, that the OECD recognised Hungary’s protective efforts and the fast preparation of its health system for the epidemic. In international comparison, Hungary’s economy can therefore be restarted faster, he said.
Gion said the OECD report ignored the crisis-tolerance capabilities of the Hungarian economy and therefore its projections were not well-based. He added that even if economic growth has slowed down, the first quarter growth of 2% was still among the best in the European Union.