An Ipsos online survey of 18,500 adults from the U.S. and 24 other countries revealed that Hungarian voters would likely elect Biden over Trump 33% to 23%, although 45% of respondents could not or would not answer. On the other hand, 35% think Trump will win, while only 29% think it will be Biden.
Overall, outside of the U.S. Biden would win by a wider margin than in Hungary, and respondents from all but two other countries think Biden will win. 48% of all non-U.S. pollees would vote for the former Vice President, while only 17% would vote for Trump. 9% preferred not to say who they would support, and the rest did not know. Opinions about who people think will win are closer; 39% think Biden will come out victorious, and 27% believe Trump will triumph. Yet, other than Hungarians, only Russians and Poles think Trump will remain in office.
Denizens of Western European nations would typically elect Biden by a wide margin. In Sweden, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands, the former Vice President would win by a margin of 50% or more. Yet, even in these countries only 20% more think that Biden will actually become President.
The only central European nation surveyed other than Hungary was Visegrad Group member Poland. Polish people seem divided; the same portion of respondents would vote for both Biden and Trump, 27%. Contrary to most other countries’ respondents, the Poles think Trump will win. 41% said the election will go to the Republican incumbent, while only 26% said Biden will defeat him.
The poll also showed that Americans are more likely than others to believe the integrity of their election will in some way be compromised. 45% of U.S. respondents think the spreading of fake news is a serious risk in this regard, as opposed to 35% in other countries. 36% of Americans believe that efforts to misrecord, misuse, or destroy valid votes may influence outcomes, in contrast with only 19% elsewhere. More than a fifth of U.S. pollees believe voter fraud and efforts to prevent people from voting are serious risks. In comparison, only around a fifth believe the same in other nations.
Some factors are perceived to pose higher risks in the U.S. than elsewhere. Specifically fake news, voter suppression, and interference from a foreign power. Other issues are perceived to pose similar risks. In Hungary, only 4% think that such factors could not seriously impact the results of the country’s next major elections.
Featured photo illustration by MTI/EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo