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Second Quarter GDP Falls 13.6% on Pandemic Impact

MTI-Hungary Today 2020.08.14.

Hungary’s GDP fell by an annual 13.6% in the second quarter, impacted by the coronavirus crisis, a first reading of data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Friday shows.

KSH said the crisis impacted services as well as industry.

Adjusted for seasonal and workday effects, GDP declined by 13.5%.

GDP for the first half fell an unadjusted 6.1% and an adjusted 5.8% year-on-year.

International Analysts Predict 6% Hungarian GDP Fall for 2020, Around 5% Growth for 2021
International Analysts Predict 6% Hungarian GDP Fall for 2020, Around 5% Growth for 2021

International analysts agree at this point that Hungary’s GDP in 2020 will considerably contract followed by a strong rebound the following year.  According to Morgan Stanley, the Hungarian GDP will fall back by 6.7% this year but will bounce back again next year and will produce a 4.6% growth. Morgan Stanley analysts also add that […]Continue reading

Quarter-on-quarter GDP slipped by an adjusted 14.5%.

In a statement published after the data was released, the finance ministry pointed to the unprecedented impact of the coronavirus crisis on the economic performance of European Union member states, and noted that economic contraction in Hungary was smaller than the 14.4% average decline for the EU in the second quarter.

It said that government measures to shield the economy from pandemic fallout and support a speedy recovery are the equivalent of about 20% of GDP, an “exemplary scale” in the EU.

“The goal is for the Hungarian economy to return to its pre-crisis path as soon as possible and to achieve again growth of around 5% next year,” the ministry said.

ING Bank chief analyst Péter Virovácz said the lender had knocked down its projection for this year’s economic contraction to 5.5-7.5%. Next year, the economy could grow in the 3-5% range, he added.

Senior Takarékbank analyst Gergely Suppan said the bank had lowered its forecast for the decline in GDP this year to 3.9%. Takarékbank sees a rebound to 7.2% growth in 2021, he added.

featured image via Tamás Vasvári/MTI