In a recent study published by Eurostat, researchers have shown how the population of Europe will continue to decline. Concerning Hungary, if the negative trend is not turned back, a tenth of the Hungarian nation could disappear by 2050.
The median age of the European Union population will increase by 4 years to 49.1 by 2050. Despite the population of Malta, Ireland, Sweden and Norway being projected to grow, this won’t be the case in most European countries. Europe, with the inclusion of Hungary, will continue to age. While, based on the forecast, Hungary stands around Europe’s average rate of population decline, it is still projected that
in the upcoming 30 years, Hungary could lose a tenth of its population, nearly a million people.
Moreover, according to the study, almost without exception, all counties in Hungary will experience a population decrease. The number of people living in the following areas may decrease the most: in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county, the population may shrink by 82 thousand, while it will decrease by 77 thousand in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county. Furthermore, the number of people living in the capital could fall by 30,000. Only Pest and Győr-Moson-Sopron counties are expected to show growth.
With the decline of Hungarians, the economic power of Hungary could also weaken over the following decades, and GDP growth will be increasingly constrained by negative demographic trends. In order for Hungarians to keep up their population, it would be necessary for the total fertility rate to increase from 1.55 in 2018 to 2.1 people. The government is constantly trying to help through programs such as the Family Protection Action Plan, Home Creation Support, and the HUF 10 million Baby Waiting Loan. In addition, a new element may be the refund of personal income tax paid this year for those raising children.
Featured photo illustration by Zoltán Balogh/MTI