Georg Spöttle is a military expert, served in and visited several hot zones, including Iraq, Afganistan, Pakistan, Syria, North Korea and other Asian and African countries. He graduated from the West Berlin Police Academy and worked as a detective at the Landeskriminalamt, dealing with political and religious crimes. Currently he is a security adviser for a security firm in Hungary. Mandiner.hu made an interview with him regarding the crisis in Ukraine and Hungary’s tough position.
First off, Spöttle tried to boil down the crisis to its most basic elements:
The Ukrainian crisis is a war of economic policy. When the people decided to sack the president, Ukrainian dictator Viktor Yanukovych, Putin saw that this will not fare well, as Ukraine could join the EU very soon. Many wanted Ukraine to break free from the post-soviet economic region, and be the lobby of Russia no more. Putin got frightened, that he will lose the market for his country’s second-grade agricultural products. He needed a puppet regime, like Yanukovych. He decided to destabilize the country, postponing its path towards the EU and NATO – since a country in civil war will never be accepted into neither. If things normalize in Ukraine, it will want to join the EU and NATO. Ukraine could turn out to be a serious torn in the Russia’s skin, where the US can deploy military equipment, paving the way to secret services, and the traditionally secretive Russia will lose some of its habitat.
He also spoke about the sanctions, detailing their possible efficiency:
When Iran was under embargo and tankers, filled with oil, standing on the open sea, that was a success story. And there is a long running embargo against North Korea as well. Although neither regimes have fallen, but that country is dying, at least that is what I concluded after my visit. There is a shortage of everything, people stand in line eight hours for a bucket of coal, there is no glass for windows, they cover it with nylon, and they do not see any meet. Now, against Russia, the plan of SWIFT embargo could isolate Russian banks from international trade. When Iran was thrown out of SWIFT, their economy had a great fall.
Speaking about minority Hungarians living in Ukraine, Spöttle voiced his concerns:
Hungary is in a tough situation, since it has to show historical responsibility to the minority Hungarians. However, as a member of the EU it should stand close to Brussels, and should find a common ground with the EU’s foreign policy. This is going to be difficult, not just because of minority Hungarians, but because of Paks II. From an economic standpoint, neither Austrians nor Germans can really stand up against Russia.
Spöttle also spoke about the possible ends to the crisis:
The crisis will not be prolonged, because Ukraine is a strong country, and if they really wanted to, then they could defeat the separatists. But then Russia would strike back with a similar firmness. According to NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen the Donetsk Basin is already lost, and I think more land grabs are to be expected.
The EU does not have military options, that would mean World War III. Europe joining the conflict with any military force is in nobody’s interest. Putin knows this, that is why he dares to be this strong. He is like a bad child, he knows the limit well, when his daddy will not smack him on the neck.
via mandiner.hu, photo honvedelem.hu