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Budapest: Tarlós Leads but Close Finish Expected by Pollsters

Ábrahám Vass 2019.10.11.

While pro-Fidesz pollsters are convinced about Fidesz’s candidate István Tarlós‘s victory in Budapest, opposition-linked and independent ones predict a tough battle and close results in the week preceding the elections.

Pro-Fidesz pollsters: Karácsony comes closer but still far behind

Pro-Fidesz think-tanks agree that Tarlós would win on Sunday. Interestingly, according to one of them, Karácsony has come a lot closer to the incumbent mayor over the week.

Nézőpont Institute found that 49% of decided voters supported István Tarlós, 43% supported joint opposition candidate Karácsony, and 8% for independent candidate Róbert Puzsér. In a poll published on Monday, the gap has been a lot larger between the two. In the poll conducted over the weekend among decided voters, Nézőpont predicted 53% for Tarlós, 40% for Karácsony, and 7% for Puzsér. Among all Budapest voters, this gap was even larger (Tarlós 49%, Karácsony 29% and Puzsér 7%).

The other pro-Fidesz pollster, Századvég says Tarlós enjoys the backing of 49% of voters, while Gergely Karácsony is supported by 44%. (Independent candidate Róbert Puzsér is backed by 6%) Századvég believes Tarlós continues to be the favourite to win Sunday’s mayoral election, though voter mobilisation will be key.

Other pollsters: Karácsony within the margin of error

By now, all the other pollsters, independent or with left/liberal affiliations, agree that Karácsony has come within the margin of error, therefore predicting a tough battle and narrow results on Sunday.

MSZP-linked ZRI-Závecz Research projects 48% for Tarlós, 45-46% for Karácsony and 6% for Puzsér. Liberal ‘Medián’ puts Tarlós at 48%, Karácsony at 47% and Puzsér at 5%.

What is more, according to leftist Publicus, Tarlós and Karácsony are tied (48% each), while Puzsér stands at 4%.

All five institutes agree that the fourth candidate, reality tv-show “star” Krisztián Berki would receive between 0-1%.

featured photo: illustration; via MTI/Tamás Sóki