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2018 GDP Growth Underestimated by All

Ábrahám Vass 2019.01.21.

Hungary’s 2018 GDP growth appears to have been underestimated by analytic companies, just as it was by government officials throughout the whole year.

As pro-government daily Magyar Idők found, all of the analytic companies, including Hungarian analysts, underestimated it and raised their expectations at least once in 2018. Economic portal, Portfolio noted that Mihály Varga’s Ministry for National Economy most likely underestimated it, initially expecting 4,3% growth. Having seen the data from the third quarter, the Ministry raised its expectations to between 4,3 and 4,5%. Portfolio.hu, however, speculates that it could easily climb even higher, to 4,7%. It would almost certainly break the record of 4,4% from the post-global recession period.

Hungary’s GDP between 2006 and 2018 Q3. Via KSH/MTI

This would probably be around two times higher than the EU average, possibly putting Hungary on the virtual European podium.

Analysts have predicted that next year will be ‘calmer’, estimating a 3,5% growth.

featured image via MTI/ Sándor Ujvári