1 Month Until EP Elections: Pollsters Predict the Odds
Ábrahám Vass 2019.04.26.
With exactly one month left until the upcoming EP elections, the governing alliance leads without a major contender. However, there are important questions that still need answering.
Just as in 2014, Hungary is entitled to send 21 MEPs to the European Parliament. Interestingly, major shifts in power are not expected. Five years ago, Fidesz-KDNP pocketed 12 mandates, Jobbik three, MSZP and DK two and the Együtt-Párbeszéd coalition and LMP one.
In total, 9 parties will set sail on 26 May. The National Election Office (NVB) has greenlit the following parties: governing alliance Fidesz-KDNP, the leftist Democratic Coalition (DK), the Socialist-Párbeszéd (MSZP-P) alliance, green-centrist LMP, opposition nationalist Jobbik, far-left Hungarian Labour party, and three newcomers, centrist-liberal Momentum, far-right Mi Hazánk Mozgalom and the satirical Hungarian Two-tailed Dog party (MKKP).
In large, surveyors agree that Fidesz-KDNP could pocket 11-14 mandates. Jobbik and MSZP-P are almost equal in popularity and would clinch two to four mandates each. In addition, DK will probably be above the five percent threshold and with a good finish, LMP and Momentum could see a similar result. A mandate for MKKP or Mi Hazánk would be surprising but not unimaginable given the chronically low turnout. After last year’s exceptionally high turnout, experts estimate this year’s to be around 50%.
According to research conducted by pro-government institute Századvég, Fidesz is supported by 54 percent of decided voters, Jobbik by 14 percent and the Socialist-Párbeszéd (MSZP-P) alliance by 10 percent. DK is backed by nine percent while LMP and Momentum are each supported by four percent. Mi Hazánk is backed by two percent of decided voters, and all other parties have a combined support of three percent.
Another pro-government institute, Nézőpont, reported an even wider Fidesz-lead. Among decided voters, Fidesz-KDNP has the support of 56 percent, Jobbik 12 percent, the Socialist-Párbeszéd alliance 11 percent, the Democratic Coalition (DK) six percent, green LMP five percent and Momentum four percent. Based on these figures, the votes would translate into 14 seats for Fidesz-KDNP, three seats for Jobbik, two for Socialist-Párbeszéd and one each for DK and LMP.
Such results would ensure three seats at the European Parliament for Jobbik, two for Socialist-Párbeszéd and one each for DK and LMP, Nézőpont claimed.
Based on Závech Research Ins.’s polls – one of the most accurate predictors of last year’s elections – left-liberal-linked Republikon Ins. has predicted 12 mandates for the ruling coalition, three for Jobbik and MSZP-P, two for DK and one for Momentum.
Parties ranked by preference among the entire population in Jan, Feb, Mar. Source: Závech Research.
In addition, the European Parliament publishes a survey month to month predicting not only the potential setup of the EP’s next period but of each country also. Their April survey, which matches March’s, predicts 13 mandates for Fidesz-KDNP, three for Jobbik and MSZP-P and one for Momentum and DK. In their results, LMP would not make it to the EP (3%).
DK’s Dobrev is the most popular lead candidate
According to center-liberal Medián – the other pollster which proved to be the most accurate ahead of 8 April – DK’s Klára Dobrev, wife of party founder, leader and former PM, Ferenc Gyurcsány, emerged as both the most well-known and popular of the candidates.
Momentum’s Katalin Cseh is somehow the second most popular while being the least well-known. Fidesz-KDNP’s László Trócsányi, the regnant Minister of Justice, came in third. While Mi Hazánk’s László Toroczkai emerged as the second most well-known politician, Jobbik’s Márton Gyöngyösi and Trócsányi tied.